Job Description
Job Description
1. Role Overview
Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. We’re seeking independent forecasters—particularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplaces—to generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics. This is a unique opportunity to apply your statistical intuition and forecasting experience toward improving next-generation AI systems.
2. Key Responsibilities
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Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains
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Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs
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Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions
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Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers
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Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design
3. Ideal Qualifications
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Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle)
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High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record
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Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks
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Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing
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Self-driven and intellectually curious
4. More About the Opportunity
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Remote and asynchronous — work on your own schedule
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Expected commitment: ~10–20 hours/week
5. Compensation & Contract Terms
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$105–140/hour for U.S.-based applicants
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You’ll be classified as an independent contractor
6. Application Process
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Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started
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You’ll complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast
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We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps
7. About Mercor
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Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations
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Our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Adam D’Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey
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Thousands of professionals across domains like law, creatives, engineering, and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI